"This is not an exit" - Russia, Ukraine, and the West.
Telegram #48 - What the film “American Psycho” can tell us about our current geopolitical impasse.
In the black comedy American Psycho (2000), based on the book of the same name, Christian Bale plays Patrick Bateman, a young professional on 1980s Wall Street who seeks individual actualization through murderous rampage. Without getting into the gory details, the film is a commentary of the post-modern society where hyper-individualization and the atomization of American society has turned people into beings fixated on self-image where ultimately one is defined by their business card.
There are many other ways to interpret American Psycho, but the general analysis is that Bateman’s murders were done to exercise his ability to impact the universe, to leave a mark even if it meant killing others. Without spoiling the film, Bateman comes to realize by the end of his search for catharsis that this all was pointless. The movie ends with a monologue from Bateman:
“There are no more barriers to cross. All I have in common with the uncontrollable and the insane, the vicious and the evil, all the mayhem I have caused and my utter indifference toward it I have now surpassed. My pain is constant and sharp and I do not hope for a better world for anyone. In fact, I want my pain to be inflicted on others. I want no one to escape, but even after admitting this, there is no catharsis. My punishment continues to elude me and I gain no deeper knowledge of myself. No new knowledge can be extracted from my telling. This confession has meant nothing.”
The book ends with these last five words: “THIS IS NOT AN EXIT”.
I bring up American Psycho not only because - beneath the veneer of a slasher film - it is a deep reflection of the post-modern condition in which we are all trapped by, it perfectly describes the current predicament Russia and West are in.
We have come to over a year of war in Ukraine. All this killing, destruction, and creation of tragedies, what has it achieved? Have we learned anything new of ourselves that our tragic human history could not have taught us? The short answer is no.
Now Russia, Ukraine, and the West are at an impasse. All parties to the war have non-negotiable objectives that cannot be reconciled.
As far as Russia is concerned, it needs some kind of victory that would bring Ukraine to the negotiating table, and have Kyiv recognize not only its 2014 annexation of Crimea, but also the four 2022 annexed regions of Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson, Zaparozhzhia, as Russian territory.
In addition to that, if Russia is able to secure such a victory, it would make the demands it had made from the beginning of the war, the “de-militarization” and “de-nazification” of Ukraine. How this would be translated into concrete demands is speculative, but it would not be far removed from the likes of Kyiv not joining NATO and the Kremlin enforcing an overhaul of Ukraine’s state organization into a federalized state akin to the goals of Minsk II.
Ukraine’s position is simple and clear. It is fighting for its survival, independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity. Kyiv has reiterated many times that it would only be open to negotiations with Moscow until the latter has withdrawn troops from Ukrainian territory - for Moscow this is a non-negotiable. Injecting a sense of cynical realism into our analysis, Ukraine’s manpower and material situation is not favorable for a long-term war. That is, unless the conditions on the ground change in its favor.
Moreover, The United States and its NATO allies are struggling to fulfill Ukraine’s armament demands. As reported by The Economist, Washington produces about 180,000 155mm artillery shells annually, while Europe produced 300,000 last year. The sum of this is short of what Ukraine utilizes in three months.
For all its support for Ukraine, the West - particularly the United States - is the party with the increasingly inextricable position. Both Russia, as made clear by Kremlin propagandists, and Ukraine understand that this war is being fought for the survival of their states. The Kremlin cannot afford defeat and neither can Kyiv.
As Western allies rally behind the United States, whether begrudgingly or not, policy makers in Washington need to consider what the “end game” will look like. Russia and Ukraine have made their positions clear; aware of the impossibility of negotiating their terms, the United States has not presented any alternative for a way out.
It must be made clear that this does not mean the United States must approach Russia with compromises, but it means actively being conscious of the cost in which the American people and the rest of the world would have to pay if the situation continues to deteriorate. Shortages in weapons production would mean weakened NATO capability to face other threats - it would also mean a Taiwan unable to bolster its arsenal in the near-term. The Kremlin had certainly underestimated Ukrainian capabilities, but it understands with clear eyes that its war has had and will continue to have ramifications on a global scale.
We are heading down a dangerous path. It should not take us thousands or millions of lives to know that all this killing would mean nothing. We can learn from Patrick Bateman and avoid becoming psychopathic ourselves. Each and every one of us whether in DC, Kyiv, Moscow, or Singapore know what must be done. We reject our current conditions and yet are unable to act; we know there is a better world to fight for, but back down when challenged; we know that the our current path will be destructive, but we still drive onwards. We must find an exit.