Telegram #8 - Should Biden act like a madman to avert the Ukrainian Crisis?
Responding Russian uncertainty with American uncertainty
Greetings from Moscow,
President Putin and President Biden had a video call on Tuesday to discuss the situation on the Ukrainian border. Biden made it clear that the US was ready to retaliate with tougher sanctions while Putin demanded guarantees that NATO would not expand eastward.
The situation remains tense. Last week a NATO reconnaissance plane crossed the flight path of a Russian civilian plane, forcing the latter to dive 500 meters to avoid a collision. Several ceasefire violations from the pro-Russian separatist region of Donetsk were reported the past week. While the Washington Post shared that at least 70,000 Russian forces are already near the border of Ukraine.
Yet we do not know what Putin’s next move is. Perhaps he is simply prodding, testing to see how far he can go to extract concessions from the West. Maybe Russia will invade Ukraine, though that seems unlikely, but we can’t rule that out either… Putin’s behavior is uncertain and the only way for Biden to deal with the crisis might be to do something similar.
Biden the Madman
Angela Stent of the Brookings Institution wrote on Foreign Affairs:
Russian policymakers have long tried to veil their motivations, keeping their adversaries and rivals guessing in a bid for strategic ambiguity. By contrast, the United States has been more predictable in its approach to the crisis in Ukraine. The Biden administration would do well to take a page out of the Russian playbook and make Moscow wonder—and fret—about Washington’s capabilities and plans.
There is something interesting to Stent’s suggestion and one - which I was surprised she did not refer back to - that is similar to the Madman theory associated with President Richard Nixon’s foreign policy.
Nixon and his administration constructed the image of the president as an “irrational” and “volatile” leader. This was done in an effort to deter the country’s communist adversaries from provoking the US in order to avoid an unpredictable response.
Perhaps the Biden administration might not need to take a page out of Putin’s playbook, but from someone else who once was at the Oval Office.
Russia knows well that whatever it does so far, the response from the US would be the same: Some finger-wagging, warnings of sanctions, and reaffirming NATO allies that the US will be ready to respond; perhaps a little more from Biden will make Russia rethink its strategy.
The New York Times, let’s get something straight…
Misleading reporting from the NYT in the latter part of an article titled “U.S. Intelligence Sees Russian Plan for Possible Ukraine Invasion” by Michael Crowley:
“U.S. officials have hinted vaguely in recent days that they have specific reasons for their heightened concern about an invasion of Russia’s neighbor, a former Soviet republic that Mr. Putin considers a rightful part of Russia.”
This is contrary to the official position of Putin where he wrote in an essay:
”We respect Ukrainians' desire to see their country free, safe and prosperous.”
Putin does, however, believe Ukraine and Russia are part of a shared civilization:
“Our spiritual, human and civilizational ties formed for centuries and have their origins in the same sources, they have been hardened by common trials, achievements and victories. Our kinship has been transmitted from generation to generation. It is in the hearts and the memory of people living in modern Russia and Ukraine, in the blood ties that unite millions of our families. Together we have always been and will be many times stronger and more successful. For we are one people.”
I have sent in an email to Mr. Crowley appealing to his sense of journalistic honesty. I have yet to receive an answer (I am of course not expecting one - who am I after all?). But it seems that journalists are too busy for the truth these days.
(Note from December 2022: I admit, I relied too heavily on what was stated on paper by Putin in his monumental essay.)
Other news from Russia:
That’s all for now folks!
I wish all of my readers well.
As the festive season nears, I hope you all find some happiness and peace during such extraordinary times. Take some time off reading the news (it is a stressful hobby at times), especially about Russia, leave that job to me and I’ll give you everything you really need to know on my telegrams 😉.
До следующей недели!
NL